March 21, 2025Discussion Summary
This webinar, held on March 21st, was organized as a follow-up to the official kick-off side event for the 2025 International Year of Glacier Preservation. The side event, co-hosted by the Asia-Pacific Water Forum (APWF) Secretariat and the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), took place on January 21st, 2025.
The earlier webinar explored the impact of glacier melt in the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region on water security and regional stability. It highlighted the critical role of science, technology, and international cooperation in ensuring a sustainable future.
Building on that foundation, the latest webinar— “Towards Regional Solutions: Glacier Melt, Water Issues, and Science Diplomacy in the HKH Region”—centered on four key pillars to foster more focused and actionable discussions:
- Enhancing understanding of the cryosphere and water resources in the HKH region
- Advancing regional cooperation and science diplomacy to support transboundary water management
- Proposing actionable regional solutions
- Developing practical short- and medium-term strategies
Opening Remarks by Dr. Shabaz Khan, APWF Vice Governing Council Chair c/o Director of the UNESCO Office in Beijing
Dr. Shabaz Khan underscored the urgent need to address glacial melt in the vital Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region. He stressed the critical importance of expert collaboration and stakeholder engagement, highlighting the personal impact of climate change on farmers and the resulting threat to food security. Emphasizing the “Third Pole’s” crucial role in providing water for 1.9 billion people of the region, Dr. Khan advocated for science diplomacy and enhanced international cooperation. He specifically noted the vital contributions of ICIMOD and UNESCO/APWF in developing actionable regional solutions for water security and stability. He further emphasized that transboundary water management, cooperation, and diplomacy are essential for equitable resource sharing, management, and conservation, underscoring the interconnectedness of the cryosphere, water security, and regional stability.
Reflecting on his career, Dr. Khan asserted that cooperation is now even more critical than scientific discovery. He urged the development of short- and medium-term strategies, constructive engagement with political systems across countries, and the fostering of collaboration and innovation to build resilience for present and future generations. He expressed his anticipation for a productive dialogue, where each institution’s unique insights can be integrated into the APWF’s regional work plan. He concluded by noting the APWF’s instrumental role in engaging key investors like the Asian Development Bank and connecting governments, river basin organizations, and knowledge providers such as ICIMOD.
Keynote presentation by Dr. Qianggong Zhang, Strategic Group Lead, ICIMOD:
Dr. Zhang highlighted the accelerating loss of the cryosphere in the Hindu Kush Himalayas (HKH) and its profound impacts on water resources and regional stability. The region’s total water volume is estimated at 10,000 km³, with glaciers contributing 8,855 km³. However, the area is warming at nearly twice the global average, driving glaciers melt, altering precipitation patterns, and intensifying water scarcity.
The HKH faces a “triple planetary crisis” of climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution, all of which exacerbate water-related challenges. Warming is causing both excessive water—through glacial melt and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs)—and severe water shortages. Glacier mass loss is accelerating, with some models predicting up to 75% ice loss by the end of the century due to a temperature rise of 3–4°C.
Some river basins, like the Indus, which relies on glacier melt for up to 50% of its flow, may experience peak water availability around 2050–2060. However, overall water demand is projected to surpass supply by 2050. The Indus Basin is heavily dependent on glacier melt for both river flow and irrigation, underscoring its vulnerability to cryosphere changes. With one of the highest “water tower” indices, the Indus is among the world’s most at-risk river systems.
Extreme water flows are projected to double by the end of the century, complicating water resource management. The increasing frequency and intensity of GLOFs pose severe threats to downstream infrastructure and human lives. For instance, while hydropower infrastructure operated normally in 2007, a major GLOF in 2019 caused severe damage. With GLOF risk expected to triple in the coming decades, Dr. Zhang stressed the urgent need for early warning systems and targeted assessments to identify the most vulnerable glacial lakes.
Although a short-term increase in water availability is possible, demand is set to far exceed supply. By 2050, downstream demand could reach 130–180 km³, while upstream supply is estimated at just 82.1 km³. This imbalance poses a critical challenge, particularly for the large populations in underdeveloped and developing countries downstream.
Addressing these challenges requires coordinated efforts at multiple levels:
- Locally: Developing community-based flood early warning systems.
- Nationally and Sub-nationally: Implementing flood forecasting tools and climate services to anticipate infrastructure risks.
- Regionally: Establishing stakeholder platforms to foster knowledge-sharing and cooperative planning.
- Globally: Raising awareness and advocating investments in the region’s resilience.
Dr. Zhang concluded this crisis is unfolding now, demanding urgent action to mitigate its increasingly severe impacts. The shrinking cryosphere and growing extremes of too much or too little water necessitate immediate and sustained collaboration to address these critical issues before it is too late.
Video Introduction
The webinar also introduced Confluence, an ICIMOD initiative bringing young filmmakers together to document the stories of the region’s 10 transboundary rivers, starting with the Indus. This multi-year project aims to raise awareness of glacial decline and its impact on millions.
Panel Discussion
Dr. Faisal M. Qamer, Intervention Manager, Resilient River Basins, ICIMOD moderated the panel discussion.
First round Panel Discussion
Q1 for Dr. Shabaz Khan:
How has UNESCO’s hydrology program contributed to regional cooperation in water-related areas?
Dr. Shahbaz Khan: Regional cooperation is challenging but essential. At UNESCO, we employ science diplomacy, bringing scientists together through initiatives like the International Hydrological Programme (IHP). By facilitating scientist-to-scientist dialogue, we bridge gaps between water managers and policymakers. Our goal is to bring together scientists, water managers, and policymakers. We also leverage mechanisms within the United Nations system, such as our collaboration with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). One example is the “Hydrology for Environment, Life, and Policy” program, which brought together scientists, lawyers, politicians, and various stakeholders. These efforts have shown that regional cooperation can take a bottom-up approach—from science to political systems—as well as a top-down approach—from political systems to society.
However, despite these efforts, we still face challenges. For instance, sharing water and ensuring equity remain sensitive topics, and these issues often hinder progress. That said, we need to focus on areas where cooperation is more feasible, like data sharing in emergencies (such as floods and droughts) or sharing technologies across borders. Before diving into more controversial issues—like the origins of water, ownership, and the resolution of water-related disputes- we can do a lot on the ground level.
Our UNESCO centers and UNESCO Chairs have been key players in this process and have contributed significantly to this cooperation mechanism. While there are challenges, there is also significant potential for progress in science diplomacy and cross-border collaboration.
Q1 for Dr. Mohammad Ashraf Goher:
What new insights can help prepare for accelerated glacial melt in the HKH region, and what immediate actions are needed?
Dr. Mohammad Ashraf Goher, Executive Director, Global Climate-Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC), Pakistan: Glacier melt in the region is an urgent crisis. The newly launched Glacier Protection and Resilience Strategy in Pakistan highlights vulnerabilities and outlines both short- and long-term strategies. Glaciers are disappearing 65% faster than a decade ago, threatening water security for agriculture and hydropower. We must shift from crisis management to proactive adaptation, including scaling up glacier monitoring, expanding weather stations, and utilizing AI-driven remote sensing. In addition, strengthening governance to regulate unsustainable activities in high-altitude zones and enhancing regional collaboration are vital to tackling this challenge. The scale of this challenge is so immense that no single country can tackle it alone. Science must inform policymaking, and cross-border data-sharing agreements are critical to understanding regional dynamics and enabling concrete actions. We need decisive, coordinated action before we cross irreversible tipping points.
Q1 for Dr. Sanjay Srivastava:
What technologies can immediately improve water climate resilience in the HKH region, and what support structures are needed?
Dr. Sanjay Srivastava, Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction, ESCAP: Advanced data science is key to addressing glacier hazards. Seasonal forecasting, impact modeling, and AI-driven analytics help quantify risks across sectors such as water, energy, and health. The Third Pole Climate Forum enhances forecasting accuracy, integrating weather and climate data with infrastructure exposure analysis through platforms like ESCAP’s Risk and Resilience Portal and the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) Japan’s AP PLAT. AI-driven supervised and deep learning techniques further refine impact assessments, ensuring data-driven pathways to adaptation and resilience in glacier preservation.
Q1 for Dr. Arun B. Shrestha:
What preparatory steps should ICIMOD and partners take for the International Year of Glacier Preservation and the Decade of Action for Cryosphere Sciences?
Dr. Arun B. Shrestha, Senior Advisor, ICIMOD: Science diplomacy is crucial to addressing the rapid cryosphere decline in the Hindu Kush Himalayas. Three key actions are necessary:
- Strengthening regional science-policy collaboration by harmonizing data collection and policy alignment.
This is particularly crucial, given the region’s lack of structured mechanisms. Science diplomacy must inform policy decisions, and to do so, we need platforms where governments, scientists, and practitioners can develop policies based on cutting-edge research. Harmonizing efforts across various areas, including monitoring, data collection, and data accessibility, is crucial for progress.
- Enhancing local climate resilience through transboundary knowledge sharing and scalable community-level solutions.
Addressing local-level impacts is critical, and investing in local resilience is key. Facilitating exchanges between communities across the region can help scale these successful practices. By working together with our partners, we can significantly enhance the implementation of these solutions.
- Leveraging global platforms to advocate for regional benefits. We must focus on this aspect to address regional needs globally.
The Upper Indus Basin Network exemplifies how scientific collaboration can be a unifying force, fostering geopolitical cooperation and building resilience in cryosphere-dependent river basins.
2nd Round Panel Discussion
Q2 for Dr. Mohammad Ashraf Goher:
Given the ongoing challenges of glacial melt, what strategic initiative could GCISC lead or support over the next years to enhance regional water management? What key partnerships would be essential?
Dr. Mohammad Ashraf Goher, Executive Director, Global Climate-Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC), Pakistan:
The Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC) plays a vital role in assessing climate impacts on glaciers and river flows through advanced hydrological modeling and remote sensing. Given the rapid glacier melt and its impact on communities, GCISC collaborates with key national agencies, including the Pakistan Meteorological Department, the Water and Power Development Authority, and the National Disaster Management Authority.
GCISC plans to lead the Glacier Integrated Water Security and Early Action System, integrating glacier monitoring, predictive water modeling, and climate risk early warnings to support vulnerable communities. One challenge is understanding the Karakoram Anomaly, where some glaciers advance despite global warming. To address this, GCISC seeks international collaboration, particularly with UNESCO, to improve scientific understanding and inform policy decisions.
While science and technology are advancing, the real challenge lies in securing the political will for coordinated glacier management.
Q2 for Dr. Sanjay Srivastava,
What technology or knowledge platform could significantly enhance climate resilience in the HKH region, and how can it be integrated into current water management practices?
Dr. Sanjay Srivastava, Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction, ESCAP:
The Third Pole Climate Center Network (TPC), a key initiative under the World Meteorological Organization’s Regional Climate Forum,connects institutions like ICIMOD, ESCAP, and the Adaptation at Altitude initiative to improve climate resilience across the Karakoram, Pamir, Himalayas, and Hindu Kush regions. Hydrometeorological agencies lead this effort, with China overseeing the eastern region, Pakistan the central, and India the southern.
ESCAP plays a crucial role in developing the Third Pole Cryosphere Knowledge Platform,which provides data on temperature, precipitation, and snow cover. This initiative bridges gaps between hydrometeorological agencies and other sectors through data science models to assess climate impacts.
The upcoming Third Pole Forum, hosted by the Indian Meteorological Department in June, will focus on impact-based forecasting and capacity development.
In addition, digitalizing early warning services, especially for the complex terrain of the HKH, remains a priority. The goal is to integrate impact-based forecasting into early warning systems, ensuring they are accessible and actionable for local communities.
Q2 for Dr. Arun Shresta:
As we approach the Decade of Action for Cryosphere Sciences, what key policy actions should be prioritized to strengthen regional cooperation on water and climate issues in the HKH region? How can ICIMOD support this collaboration?
Dr. Arun Shrestha, Senior Advisor, ICIMOD:
The “vicious circle of mistrust”remains a major barrier to transboundary water cooperation. Countries sharing river basins often lack trust, leading to fragmented research and misconceptions that further fuel geopolitical tensions. Breaking this cycle requires strengthening scientific collaborationthrough science diplomacy.
A key step is expanding knowledge networks such as the Upper Indus Basin Network, which has fostered cross-border research for over a decade. Similar efforts are now underway in the Brahmaputra and Ganges Basins to promote joint studies and data sharing.
Another crucial approach is the “Riverscape” framework, which examines upstream, midstream, and downstream dynamics within basins. This helps identify how actions in one region affect others, supporting more effective cooperation. ICIMOD has initiated basin assessments, starting with the Indus, leveraging local expertise to develop a practical cooperation framework.
Strengthening knowledge-sharing networks and basin-wide assessments are key to fostering long-term regional collaboration. These initiatives offer a path to overcoming mistrust and building a shared, science-driven approach to water and climate resilience.
Closing Remarks by Dr. Shabaz Khan, APWF Vice Governing Council Chair c/o Director of the UNESCO Office in Beijing
The UN system is actively integrating SDG 6 (Water) and SDG 13 (Climate Action) with broader global efforts, recognizing their links to poverty reduction and public health. For instance, collaboration with the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the Belt and Road Initiative has been instrumental in advancing knowledge sharing on climate challenges.
Key priorities include expanding glacier monitoring systems—an ongoing focus for UNESCO and WMO—and strengthening early warning systems, especially for glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). Beyond scientific efforts, the role of cultural heritage and traditional knowledge is crucial. UNESCO’s Open Science Initiative underscores the importance of indigenous knowledge in climate adaptation, while glacial melt threatens both tangible and intangible heritage, including sacred sites and oral traditions.
Glaciers hold deep cultural and spiritual significance, yet their role in local traditions remains underexplored. Recognizing and integrating these perspectives into climate action is essential. Today’s discussions showcased valuable insights on regional cooperation, particularly through ICIMOD’s integrated water management approach and GCISC’s work with Pakistan’s Meteorological Department and Disaster Management Authority.
The key challenge ahead is translating scientific models into actionable policies. Science diplomacy is more critical than ever, with UNESCO, ESCAP, WMO, and ICIMOD fostering regional cooperation. Strengthening scientific networks, particularly in vulnerable countries like Pakistan and Nepal, is essential.
Program (90 minutes)
Webinar Introduction:
Ms. Yumiko Asayama, Chief Manager, APWF Secretariat c/o Japan Water Forum
Opening Remarks
Dr. Shabaz Khan, APWF Vice Governing Council Chair c/o Director of the UNESCO Office in Beijing and UNESCO Representative to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Japan, Mongolia, People’s Republic of China, and the Republic of Korea
Keynote Presentation
Dr. Qianggong Zhang, Strategic Group Lead, ICIMOD
Video: Glacier melt in HKH and its consequences
Panel Discussion (Including Q&A)
Panelists:
- Dr. Arun B. Shrestha, Senior Advisor, ICIMOD
- Dr. Muhammad Arif Goheer, Executive Director, Global Climate-Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC), Pakistan
- Dr. Sanjay Srivastava, Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction, ESCAP
(Reported by Yumiko Asayama, Chief Manager)
